506
FXUS63 KBIS 232011
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL, THEN MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS,
MODERATE PRESSURE RISES AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
CREATING VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO HOW STRONG WINDS
WILL BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE PRESSURE BUBBLE WEAKENS
FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT DICKEY
AND LAMOURE COUNTIES. THOUGH EVEN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE
MISSOURI COTEAU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY; INITIALLY GRADUALLY, THEN
RAPIDLY.
DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WERE RELATIVELY SLOW TO RISE. HOWEVER, AS SKIES
CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE.
DICKINSON AND BISMARCK COULD STILL REACH THEIR RECORD HIGHS OF
79 AND 77 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THE PEAK HEATING WINDOW
IS BEGINNING TO RUN OUT AS YESTERDAY'S HIGHS WERE AROUND 4 PM
CDT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S AND LOW 30S.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PRESENT IN FOSTER COUNTY AND MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT UNDER LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ARE THEN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PASS FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CLEAR
OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THOUGH BRIEF ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CONDITIONS COOLER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY TODAY, WHILE WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHTER. THAT
SAID, AS SKY COVER CLEARS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER NORTH, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL. THEREFORE,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORED FOR BOWMAN AND
SLOPE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WILL
BRING VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-
040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ003>005-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-
035>037-042-046-047-050-055>062.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-043.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page