956
FXUS63 KBIS 240505
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN ND AND IS PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ND WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH WITH THE INITIAL
SURGE. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, WITH STRONG WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
PLUMMETED, AS GLASGOW, MONTANA HAS DROPPED INTO THE 40S, WITH
30S JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THERE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS,
MODERATE PRESSURE RISES AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
CREATING VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO HOW STRONG WINDS
WILL BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS THE PRESSURE BUBBLE WEAKENS
FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT DICKEY
AND LAMOURE COUNTIES. THOUGH EVEN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE COUNTIES MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE
MISSOURI COTEAU. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY; INITIALLY GRADUALLY, THEN
RAPIDLY.
DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WERE RELATIVELY SLOW TO RISE. HOWEVER, AS SKIES
CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE.
DICKINSON AND BISMARCK COULD STILL REACH THEIR RECORD HIGHS OF
79 AND 77 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THE PEAK HEATING WINDOW
IS BEGINNING TO RUN OUT AS YESTERDAY'S HIGHS WERE AROUND 4 PM
CDT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S AND LOW 30S.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE PRESENT IN FOSTER COUNTY AND MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT UNDER LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ARE THEN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH KMOT AND KBIS AND WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND (INCLUDING KJMS) WILL SHIFT WESTERLY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS INITIALLY BEHIND THE CDFNT, THEN MAINLY 25
TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. MVFR
CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO WESTERN ND WILL PUSH EAST TO AROUND THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID MORNING. ONLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046-047-050-
055>062.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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