443
FXUS63 KBIS 250307
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING
OVER, VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND WINDS GOING
LIGHT, EXPECT LOWS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT, THOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER MAY FILTER IN MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. CURRENTLY, NBM LOWS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
20S WITH SOME LOW 30S WHERE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BECOMING EVEN COLDER IN AREAS WHERE SKIES
DO IN FACT REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH REORGANIZES MORE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN, WHILE
THE NORTH REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH,
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER ON
SUNDAY, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS WHEN THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES MORE TOWARDS ONTARIO AND EVEN
MOISTER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTH DAKOTA BEING THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR THE CENTER. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH MAINLY SOUTH OF I94.
THE KEY TERM THERE BEING LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THERE REMAINS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY SUCH AS TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES. HOWEVER, A
FEW MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
COULD COOL THE SURFACE ENOUGH TO MAKE ACCUMULATING SNOW A LITTLE
EASIER. FURTHERMORE, ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES COULD OVERCOME
WARM SURFACES ANYWAYS. THAT SAID, A SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS
MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE AREA IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE NBM ENSEMBLE
IS PRODUCING A GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I94 FROM RICHARDTON TO MEDINA, THOUGH
THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH OVERALL GIVEN WARMER SOILS
AND THE TIME OF DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THEY CERTAINLY
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS FOR THIS SEASON'S FIRST
SNOWFALL.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE WITHIN THE
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, THESE CHANCES ARE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AS HIGHS TUESDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S, THEN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. STILL, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S,
DEPENDING ON TIMING AND LOCATION, A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX IN AT
TIMES AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JJS
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