767
FXUS63 KBIS 260906
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS FAR SOUTHWEST.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHWEST, SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
CURRENTLY, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS LIFTING NORTH FROM NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MONDAK REGION, COMBINED WITH THE FORCING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW, IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND. IT'S
HARD TO TELL ON AREA WEBCAMS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIGHT AND REMAINING IN GRASSY AREAS.
FOR TODAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ND TO CONTINUE
TO WORK NORTHWARD. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY
LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THE WATFORD CITY AREA AND POSSIBLY
WILLISTON. ANY SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. CURRENT SNOWFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX, OR ALL RAIN AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST ND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIP EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR, AND MORESO ALONG THE SD BORDER. ANY PRECIP HERE TODAY
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS WELL.
TONIGHT A SECOND, STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA, THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE LIGHTER QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN ND. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS HIGHLIGHTING THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ND AS AREAS WHERE WE COULD SEE A
QUARTER INCH OF QPF. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER
SOUTH AND IS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. WE MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND INTO
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. A PRETTY COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH A QUICK SHOT OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WITHIN AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, WE COULD SEE A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, A BAND OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.
LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS THAT WE SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW. A HIT OR MISS
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT BY AND LARGE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THE WEEKEND, THE UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP QUITE A BIT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW. A CLUSTER
ANALYSIS DOES YIELD SOME CLARIFICATION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, THE MOST UNLIKELY
OUTCOME LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH.
THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS A SLOWER DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH, BUT
WHETHER WE SEE MORE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, OR A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH, REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, AFFECTING THE KDIK TERMINAL AROUND OR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. KDIK WILL THEN PROBABLY REMAIN IN MVFR TO LOW VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, 06Z. EXPECT AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST, UP TO 25KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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