022
FXUS64 KBMX 191005
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THIS AM, BMX RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME SPARCE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE NRN BAND
WHILE THE SRN BAND IS BASICALLY JUST SHOWERS. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM W TN TO S LA. WHILE
THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN STORMS REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUST IN THE SW COUNTIES TODAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE
NOON AS THE MAIN LOW SHOULD TREK CLOSE TO THE COAST. SOME SHOWERS
LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO PUSH
THE RAIN OUT; INSTABILITY DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 1/3-1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES, TO ~1-2 INCHES FROM THE I59 TO I85
CORRIDOR, TO 1.5-3 INCHES SE OF I85 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE RAIN, LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY OCCUR.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG, LOOK FOR
DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE.
08
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO A LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY (BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL LOW) SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. CENTRAL
ALABAMA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY, STABLE
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL SLOWLY MODERATE, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES,
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE FROST
DEVELOPMENT THU, FRI, AND SAT NIGHTS, WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THOSE NIGHTS AS WELL. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS THE TYPICAL NORTHERN VALLEYS. THIS COLD SNAP WILL GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE SCHEDULED END TO THE GROWING SEASON. A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT APPEARS PROBABLE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WITH VIRGA AND SPRINKLE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO BLOSSOM OVER PARTS OF ALABAMA AS OF 04:57Z. CEILING
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE HOLD AS THIS SYSTEM ENVELOPS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFR MAY TAKE HOLD SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES TONIGHT TO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRY, COOL AIR
AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 54 67 36 / 100 60 0 0
ANNISTON 68 58 68 36 / 100 60 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 56 66 39 / 100 50 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 53 66 38 / 100 20 0 0
CALERA 70 57 68 39 / 100 50 0 0
AUBURN 66 62 71 40 / 100 60 0 0
MONTGOMERY 71 62 72 39 / 100 60 0 0
TROY 71 61 72 39 / 100 50 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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