135
FXUS64 KBMX 210945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST
ITEM IS THE COLD WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE. A COLD ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS BETWEEN
5-10 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. SHELTERED COULD TREND A TAD
LIGHTER. THIS WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN REGARDS TO MIXING AND ITS
IMPLICATIONS ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS FROST FORMATION. FOR
EXAMPLE, THURSDAY NIGHT, THE TEMPERATURE AT GADSDEN DROPPED TO 34F
AND THEN QUICKLY ROSE 10 DEGREES ONCE THE BREEZE KICKED BACK IN. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR (BRIEFLY) REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN-TIER COUNTIES. THAT COULD BE
OFFSET BY THE WIND. AND, A BREEZE WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP FROST FROM
BEING WIDESPREAD. WE'LL REVISIT THIS IN A FEW HOURS IN REGARDS TO
FROST/FREEZE ALERTS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL
LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON IN MANY LOCATIONS.
FOLLOWING A BREEZY AND CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED, AND THEREFORE FROST
& FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED. THE GROWING SEASON WILL COME TO
AN END ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER FROST WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
OTHERWISE WE'LL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AND A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS
UP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AFTER TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST BY THANKSGIVING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES, I'VE KEPT THE
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE IN TERMS OF POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WHILE FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE AND CLOSER
TO AN OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS, THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
GUST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
24
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. TODAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 30 MPH, UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ON FRIDAY, AND FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S TODAY, AND THE 40-PERCENT RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(PERHAPS ISOLATED UPPER 30S). OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD INCLUDE RHS
IN THE 70 AND 80 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AT OR NEAR 100%
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 33 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 55 33 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 35 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 56 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 35 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 35 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...24
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