443
FXUS64 KBMX 261742
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60 TO 90
PERCENT) OF AT ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES BEGIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST, INCREASING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
CENTRAL AL, SO WHILE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE LOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTIER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WE SHOULD
STAY BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY DRIER AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIPS
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. SOME OF OUR COLDER LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FROST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
INITIALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, AND THEN PROGRESS DOWN
TO MVFR TO IFR AFTER DARK. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ONCE THE
LOWER CEILINGS SET IN, THEY WILL LIKELY STAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE 18Z END OF THE
FORECAST. ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A POTENTIAL
GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE THAT MAY BRING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 30-40 KT
(OR MORE) WIND GUSTS AS THE FIRST PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OUT
OF AN AREA. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS WOULD BE
MGM AND AUO. HOWEVER, IF THIS FEATURE GROWS OR PROPAGATES
NORTHWARD, THEN THE SAME THING COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES (TCL/BHM/EET) AS WELL.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 59 49 63 / 100 90 30 10
ANNISTON 50 59 50 62 / 100 80 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 60 52 64 / 90 70 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 65 52 68 / 90 50 10 10
CALERA 53 64 50 67 / 90 60 10 0
AUBURN 53 61 51 63 / 90 70 30 0
MONTGOMERY 56 66 53 65 / 90 50 10 0
TROY 56 67 52 65 / 90 50 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION.../61/
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