525
FXUS64 KBMX 261926
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60
TO 90 PERCENT) OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE FIRST OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA, COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND FILL
IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE'S STILL QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PAINTING A CLOUDY AND DAMP PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
RAIN SHIELD -- VERY CAD WEDGE-LIKE.
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE
DECEMBER OR JANUARY, WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FOR POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORTUNATELY, IT IS STILL
OCTOBER AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO QUELL ANY OF
THAT NONSENSE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A COUPLE/FEW POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNINGS EARLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
INITIALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR, AND THEN PROGRESS DOWN
TO MVFR TO IFR AFTER DARK. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ONCE THE
LOWER CEILINGS SET IN, THEY WILL LIKELY STAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE 18Z END OF THE
FORECAST. ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A POTENTIAL
GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE THAT MAY BRING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 30-40 KT
(OR MORE) WIND GUSTS AS THE FIRST PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OUT
OF AN AREA. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS WOULD BE
MGM AND AUO. HOWEVER, IF THIS FEATURE GROWS OR PROPAGATES
NORTHWARD, THEN THE SAME THING COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES (TCL/BHM/EET) AS WELL.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 59 49 63 / 100 90 30 10
ANNISTON 50 59 50 62 / 100 80 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 60 52 64 / 90 70 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 65 52 68 / 90 50 10 10
CALERA 53 64 50 67 / 90 60 10 0
AUBURN 53 61 51 63 / 90 70 30 0
MONTGOMERY 56 66 53 65 / 90 50 10 0
TROY 56 67 52 65 / 90 50 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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