922
FXUS64 KBMX 262352
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 652 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60
TO 90 PERCENT) OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE AT SEEING PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE FIRST OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA, COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AND FILL
IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE'S STILL QUITE A
BIT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BACK BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PAINTING A CLOUDY AND DAMP PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
RAIN SHIELD -- VERY CAD WEDGE-LIKE.
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE
DECEMBER OR JANUARY, WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FOR POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORTUNATELY, IT IS STILL
OCTOBER AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO QUELL ANY OF
THAT NONSENSE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE A COUPLE/FEW POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNINGS EARLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA. A SECOND AREA, MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS DEVELOPING OVER TCL AND EET AND SHOULD FILL IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL LOW OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF MONDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 59 49 63 / 100 90 30 10
ANNISTON 50 59 50 62 / 100 80 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 60 52 64 / 90 70 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 65 52 68 / 90 50 10 10
CALERA 53 64 50 67 / 90 60 10 0
AUBURN 53 61 51 63 / 90 70 30 0
MONTGOMERY 56 66 53 65 / 90 50 10 0
TROY 56 67 52 65 / 90 50 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...16
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