090
FXUS64 KBMX 271120
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1" ARE LIKELY
WITH A MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE FAR NORTH ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE AT SEEING PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
MUCH WARMING WE SEE THROUGH THE DAY.
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS TRENDED DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS, NOW PRODUCING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CAD
WEDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, I DON'T SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, SO EVEN WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM,
THE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE LOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FROST CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. IFR
CEILINGS AND -RA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE AS LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS CYCLE.
VIS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 MILES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 49 64 47 / 80 20 0 80
ANNISTON 58 50 63 48 / 80 20 0 60
BIRMINGHAM 60 52 65 50 / 60 10 0 80
TUSCALOOSA 65 52 69 50 / 30 10 0 80
CALERA 63 50 68 48 / 50 10 0 70
AUBURN 60 52 64 50 / 70 20 0 30
MONTGOMERY 65 53 67 52 / 50 10 0 40
TROY 67 53 67 51 / 50 10 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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