703
FXUS64 KBMX 271739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1" ARE LIKELY
WITH A MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE FAR NORTH ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE AT SEEING PATCHY FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
MUCH WARMING WE SEE THROUGH THE DAY.
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS TRENDED DEEPER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS, NOW PRODUCING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CAD
WEDGE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, I DON'T SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, SO EVEN WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM,
THE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE LOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FROST CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MVFR (AT BEST) TO IFR METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT, CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 1000 FT BECOME MORE LIKELY. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY,
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SO SUGGEST THAT CEILING LEVELS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW 1500 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 64 46 57 / 20 0 80 90
ANNISTON 50 62 48 58 / 20 0 70 90
BIRMINGHAM 52 65 50 57 / 10 0 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 52 68 50 60 / 0 10 90 70
CALERA 51 67 49 60 / 0 0 80 70
AUBURN 52 63 50 61 / 20 0 40 70
MONTGOMERY 53 67 52 63 / 0 0 50 60
TROY 52 67 51 63 / 0 0 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION.../61/
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