254
FXUS64 KBMX 271928
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1" ARE LIKELY
WITH A MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. THOSE WITH FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS
WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT, WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE THE STEADY
RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED, THERE'S STILL BOUND TO BE SOME SPOTS
OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE AROUND. TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRY, BUT WILL STILL LIKELY FEATURE PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
QUICKLY DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOTS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD CORE LOW WILL LEAD TO ROUGHLY 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, TO A COUPLE TENTHS TO UNDER A
HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT THE END OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER US BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COLDER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA -- IF
NOT FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MORE SO ON SATURDAY MORNING.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MVFR (AT BEST) TO IFR METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
LOCATIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS WOULD BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT, CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 1000 FT BECOME MORE LIKELY. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY,
COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SO SUGGEST THAT CEILING LEVELS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW 1500 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 64 46 57 / 20 0 80 90
ANNISTON 50 62 48 58 / 20 0 70 90
BIRMINGHAM 52 65 50 57 / 10 0 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 52 68 50 60 / 0 10 90 70
CALERA 51 67 49 60 / 0 0 80 70
AUBURN 52 63 50 61 / 20 0 40 70
MONTGOMERY 53 67 52 63 / 0 0 50 60
TROY 52 67 51 63 / 0 0 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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