659
FXUS64 KBMX 280758
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 258 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH
AND ONE INCH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WITH A MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.
278 CORRIDOR.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS
WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A FAIRLY COMPLEX, COOL, AND MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EASTERLY CAD WEDGE AT
THE SURFACE HANGING TOUGH. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS
MEASURED ON THE 00Z KBMX RAOB FROM MONDAY EVENING. WITH 700 TO
500MB FLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WE'LL HAVE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY STAYING RAIN-FREE UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE EASTERLY SURFACE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, AS I
HAVE A FEELING WE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS CLOUDS HANG
TOUGH ALONG WITH THE EASTERLY WEDGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65. OFFICIALLY SPEAKING, FORECAST HIGHS ARE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN CLEBURNE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF UPDATES TODAY BRING THOSE
NUMBERS DOWN A BIT.
MEANWHILE, THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY THIS EVENING, BECOMING A
DEEPENING COLD-CORE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AS EARLY AS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY MOISTENS ALOFT, RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF THIS SETUP TOOK PLACE IN DECEMBER OR JANUARY, WE'D
HAVE A WINTER WEATHER MESS ON OUR HANDS. IN FACT, HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AS
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH. PUTTING THIS
INTO A CLIMO PERSPECTIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT
500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS LOW AS -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACCORDING
TO THE GEFS.
AS A RESULT, I'VE BEGUN TO TREND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
LOCATIONS SUCH AS HALEYVILLE AND ONEONTA STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50
DEGREE MARK BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO WITH SOME SUNSHINE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THOSE SOUTHERN-MOST FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AS THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY, WE'LL ENTER
INTO A DRIER BUT COLDER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL OF THE SEASON NOW APPEARS LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CALM AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BEING ADVERTISED, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS
ALONG THE U.S. 278 CORRIDOR FROM HAMILTON TO GADSDEN. FOR FOLKS
THAT HAVE SENSITIVE FALL VEGETATION, IT'S PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
START PLANNING ON TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT THOSE PLANTS ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY MORNING BUT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER THAT WAS VERY WARM, THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT COLD FOR ALL OF US
SOUTHERNERS. FOLLOWING THE FROSTY MORNINGS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH "CHILLY" NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10MPH.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO APPROACH BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME INTERESTING SOLUTIONS CONSISTING OF PERHAPS
ANOTHER POTENT CLOSED LOW OR VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM EVOLVING
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL WATCH
GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR MORE CONTINUITY ON THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE DOLDRUMS THAT WE
OBSERVED OVER SEPTEMBER AND MUCH OF OCTOBER SEEM TO BE COMING TO
AN END AS WE GO INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MGM AND AUO. OTHERWISE, AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WIDESPREAD RA WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, AFFECTING NORTHERN SITES
WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS,
INCREASING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH HIGH RH VALUES AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINFALL WILL SET UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO OUR NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 47 54 42 / 0 90 90 50
ANNISTON 62 48 56 44 / 0 80 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 65 51 54 45 / 10 90 90 40
TUSCALOOSA 68 51 53 45 / 20 90 70 30
CALERA 67 50 55 44 / 10 80 80 30
AUBURN 62 50 58 45 / 0 40 80 20
MONTGOMERY 67 52 60 46 / 0 60 60 10
TROY 66 51 62 45 / 0 30 60 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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