587
FXUS64 KBMX 281745
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH
ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH A MEDIUM
(30-50%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S. 278
CORRIDOR.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS
WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TODAY, A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN AL THIS EVENING. MID
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO JUST SHY OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTING WINDS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, AS WELL AS WIND
PROFILE, WOULD EXPECTED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE
FORCING OF THAT LOW. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, THOUGH
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, A STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND EVEN STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL JET, PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE INITIAL BOUNDARY WITH RAIN, WITH PW VALUES AND
DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS I20 AND SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH
OF I20 SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE
AREAS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON ANY
MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE, CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COULD
STILL SEE GUSTS 20-25, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW, THE DRIER AIR ADVECTED, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT COLDER
MORE DENSE AIR COULD BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THIS FOR NOW, BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OR INCREASED CHANCES.
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN THE ACTUAL
EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURE, WITH A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS
THAT FEEL LIKE THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST, WITH
WINDS ALSO WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH PAST THE MID
50S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS.
AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH HAVING A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
OF CONTINUING TO SEE FROST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW APPROACHES THE STATE. MODELS
ARE MIXED ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH BOTH AGREE ON
TIMING OF LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE WITH IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAUO AND KMGM WHERE RAIN SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED AND END FASTER WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
STATE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG, SO WINDS WILL BE GUSTING,
INCREASING TONIGHT AND GUSTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
24
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH HIGH RH VALUES AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINFALL WILL SET UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO OUR NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 57 42 58 / 80 90 60 10
ANNISTON 49 56 44 57 / 70 90 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 50 56 45 58 / 90 90 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 50 57 45 61 / 90 70 40 10
CALERA 49 59 43 60 / 80 90 40 10
AUBURN 49 59 45 58 / 40 80 20 0
MONTGOMERY 53 61 46 60 / 60 80 10 0
TROY 51 62 45 59 / 30 60 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page