906
FXUS64 KBMX 291101
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
PREVAILING BETWEEN 15 AND 20MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30MPH.
WHILE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, A FEW WEAKENED TREES OR LARGER BRANCHES MAY GO DOWN
DUE TO THE ELEVATED GRADIENT WINDS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, WITH COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH FROST
SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
AS WE LOOK OUT THE WINDOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HERE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS, SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST. WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, THANKS TO
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT. I'VE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING. THE VERY DYNAMIC AND WHAT WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY-STACKED CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE STARTING TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS
ALREADY OBSERVED OVER 20MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT TUSCALOOSA AND
ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TODAY AS GUSTS APPROACH
30MPH AT TIMES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WEAKENED TREES AND LARGE
BRANCHES GOING DOWN FROM THE PROLONGED GRADIENT WINDS AS A RESULT.
THE SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA, MOVING TOWARD THE
I-55 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IN TERMS OF THE HOURLY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, I'VE OPTED
TO GO WITH A MORE "OLD SCHOOL" APPROACH USING A BLEND OF RAW
GUIDANCE AS OPPOSED TO NBM. THAT SHOULD BETTER ACCOUNT FOR WHAT'S
ACTUALLY GOING ON OUT THE WINDOW RIGHT NOW - WHICH IS STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WE'LL QUICKLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COLD-CORE LOW, WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. AS
SUSPECTED YESTERDAY, THE NBM GUIDANCE DID NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNT FOR
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD WEDGE AND WAS TOO WARM FOR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. AS THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW (4 TO 4.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AT 500MB) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WE CAN
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WRAP-AROUND
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN OTHER WORDS - WE'VE
GOT A WET, COLD, AND RAW DAY ON TAP FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHILE FOLKS I-85 AND SOUTH
MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS NEAR 60 AS A DRY SLOT
WORKS IN ALOFT. BEING HONEST, MY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH DUE TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAT COME WITH
COLD-CORE SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
AS THE CLOSED LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING,
SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SHOWERS
(WHICH WOULD BE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS IF WE WERE IN THE WINTER
MONTHS) DEVELOPING EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE BANDS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS IN AT THE 700 TO 500MB LEVELS AND
CLOUDS MIX OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THESE CLOUDS MIX OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
OFFICIALLY SPEAKING MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THAT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE FALL
SEASON ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG THE U.S. 278 CORRIDOR FROM HAMILTON TO
GADSDEN AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. MAKE PLANS NOW IF YOU NEED
TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE FALL PLANTS. FOLLOWING A TRANQUIL BUT
COOL DAY ON FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE LOWER RIVER BASINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. YESTERDAY'S 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WERE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE YESTERDAY THEN DIVERGED FROM THAT SOLUTION, BUT THIS
MORNING WITH THE 00Z RUNS WE'RE ALMOST RIGHT BACK TO WHERE WE
WERE YESTERDAY, BUT WITH BETTER AGREEMENT. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY MORNING.
OBVIOUSLY, THE CURRENT DRY OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY
WOULD BE GREATLY IMPACTED IF THIS SOLUTION IS MAINTAINED IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE LATER TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS, EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT THERE ARE SIGNALS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. STAY
TUNED!
56/GDG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
TAF WINDOW. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.
MGM/AUO HAVE A MODERATE CHANCE TO BRIEFLY SEE VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHRA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING.
NORTHERN TERMINALS TRANSITION TO VCSH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR TRAILING ACTIVITY. THIS SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
MGM/AUO. MVFR/IFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM 25-30 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THIS MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH HIGH RH VALUES AND WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20FT WINDS
WILL GREATLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY DRYING OUT DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 45 57 34 / 90 60 20 0
ANNISTON 54 44 56 37 / 90 40 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 46 57 38 / 90 50 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 48 60 38 / 70 30 0 0
CALERA 53 46 59 37 / 90 40 10 0
AUBURN 56 46 58 41 / 70 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 59 49 59 38 / 80 10 0 0
TROY 60 48 59 38 / 60 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page