412
FXUS64 KBMX 300025
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
PREVAILING BETWEEN 15 AND 20MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30MPH.
WHILE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, A FEW WEAKENED TREES OR LARGER BRANCHES MAY GO DOWN
DUE TO THE ELEVATED GRADIENT WINDS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, WITH COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH FROST
SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SO LONG "FALSE FALL," AS IT APPEARS REAL FALL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.
THIS SUPER POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24-HOURS, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THEN. IN FACT, WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED NEAR
15 MPH FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE AT CERTAIN POINTS. THIS SUPER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO GIVE WAY BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A PERFECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION OVERNIGHT. COME FRIDAY MORNING, LOWS
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR VALLEY SPOTS, WITH
MID TO UPPER-30S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ELSE. IN TURN, WE MAY SEE
OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON, WITH A FROST ADVISORY
BEING NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ONE WILL BE NEEDED, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE
EVALUATED OVER THE COMING DAY OR TWO.
THINGS SHOULD MOSTLY STABILIZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY STARTING TO REBOUND BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BY THE
START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE ANOTHER VERY POTENT
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE, DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE OVERALL TIMING, AND DEPTH OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR US WOULD BE ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR TUESDAY ONWARD.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SOME -SHRA OR DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT SOME
OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS ARE ONGOING WITH WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR MOST
AS WE PROGRESS LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS IMPROVE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BUT NON VFR CIGS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.
08
FIRE WEATHER
VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING 30 MPH AT POINTS. THIS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY DRYING SOME OF
THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH RAIN,
WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 57 34 63 / 40 20 0 0
ANNISTON 44 56 37 63 / 30 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 57 38 63 / 50 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 60 38 66 / 50 0 0 0
CALERA 45 59 37 66 / 40 10 0 0
AUBURN 45 58 41 64 / 20 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 59 38 66 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 45 59 38 66 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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