413
FXUS64 KBMX 300746
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 245 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, PREVAILING
BETWEEN 15 AND 20MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30MPH. A FEW WEAKENED
TREES OR LARGER BRANCHES MAY GO DOWN DUE TO THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE ELEVATED GRADIENT WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-LYING RIVER
BASINS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 30S IN THESE LOCATIONS. FROST DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE WITH FROST SENSITIVE
PLANTS WILL NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND DYNAMIC CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF
TO OUR NORTH OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE, WITH PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TODAY. GOING WITH A SIMILAR FORECAST TREND THAT I'VE USED
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY DUE
TO THE SOCKED-IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KICK IN AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM IS CONTINENTAL IN
NATURE, AND NOT EXTREMELY COLD IN NATURE. THEREFORE, I'VE KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S DUE TO THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
BUT SURELY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
THE CLOSED LOW THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. TIMING THE MIXING OF THE CLOUDS WILL GREATLY AFFECT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MIXING SHOULD COMMENCE BETWEEN 1PM
AND 4PM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEST
OF I-65 AND AT LEAST PEEKS OF SUNSHINE FOR EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNSET. WITH THAT SAID, THE GOES-19 NIGHTTIME SATELLITE PRODUCT
IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AT THIS HOUR. WE'LL SEE HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
ACTUALLY HANG ON BUT FOR NOW, FORECAST HIGHS ARE RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR EAST
AND NORTHEAST FROM CLEBURNE TO CHEROKEE COUNTIES. BANDS OF SHOWERS
ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP FROM THE CAMS THROUGH NOON
TODAY AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF 500MB VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT, QUICKLY ENDING AFTER MIDDAY TODAY.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, SUSTAINED
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND
30MPH.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
MOSTLY CALM WINDS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITHIN VALLEYS
AND LOW-LYING DRAINAGE BASINS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-22 AND I-20
CORRIDORS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE U.S. 80/I-85
CORRIDORS IN A FEW NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS.
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN DAY) WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH
SUNNY SKIES, COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10MPH, AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. TRICK-OR-TREATERS HALLOWEEN NIGHT CAN EXPECT
CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY 7PM
AND 40S BETWEEN 9 AND 10PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST APPEARS LIKELY
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOR THE COOLER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN, BUT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
AREAWIDE (MID TO UPPER 30S) WITH LESS OVERALL EXTENT OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
I WISH I COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE CLARITY IN TERMS OF THE
OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING, BUT WE'RE STILL LOOKING
AT A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTHWESTWARD STRETCHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO ANALYZE THE
EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN
500MB FLOW BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONE SCENARIO HAS THE LOW
DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING, WITH
VERY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEING ADVERTISED AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
SECOND SCENARIO DOESN'T DEVELOP THE CUT-OFF LOW UNTIL IT'S MUCH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SO FOR NOW, I'VE STAYED WITH THE
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH IS MAINLY DRY DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, IF WE START TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE
FIRST PRIOR SCENARIO THAT I MENTIONED, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
MODIFY THE FORECAST IN A HURRY AS WE'RE ONLY 84 TO 100 HOURS OUT.
AGAIN, STAY TUNED!
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL BE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE NEAR
TERM, THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST 20FT WINDS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO HANG ON LONGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF ALABAMA. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE DRYING AND MINRH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN NORTH ALABAMA TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 34 64 35 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 54 37 64 38 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 38 63 38 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 61 38 66 40 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 57 37 65 38 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 56 41 63 40 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 59 38 67 38 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 59 38 65 38 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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