757
FXUS64 KBMX 302313
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
613 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- FROST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS.
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE ONGOING CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATER
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE ONGOING WINDS. IN
THEORY, THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO TO OCCUR TONIGHT. I SAY IN THEORY, BECAUSE THERE ARE A FEW
SCENARIOS IN WHICH THE CLOUDS HANG ON A BIT LONGER, OR THE WINDS
DON'T FULLY DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MAINLY EFFECT THE FROST POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER-30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GIVEN THAT AFOREMENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, JUST
LIKE I MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER, AND HOW MIXED WE STAY. IN THE EVENT ALL
OF THESE THINGS AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER, THEN ONLY
PATCHY FROST IS REALLY ANTICIPATED.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN
REGARDING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST ONLY
MAINTAINS MINIMAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, BUT IF THE LOW WERE TO DEEPEN
FARTHER TO THE WEST, THEN THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
CHANCES. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS SYSTEM WOULD REINFORCE THIS COLDER
AIRMASS BY TUESDAY, SLOWING THE WARMING TREND WE'RE GOING TO
EXPERIENCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR ALL C AL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS ~ 4-5KFT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
C AL AT THIS HOUR ON SATELLITE. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SWING EWD
AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 5-8KTS WITH MIXING ON
FRI.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT, WITH MINRH VALUES TOMORROW
RANGING BETWEEN 40-50%. MINRH VALUES SHOULD RANGE HERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK,
BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, DRYING RESUMES FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 34 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 36 64 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 38 64 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 37 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 36 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 39 64 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 39 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 38 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-
COOSA-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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