849
FXUS64 KBMX 310534
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- FROST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS.
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE ONGOING CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATER
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE ONGOING WINDS. IN
THEORY, THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIO TO OCCUR TONIGHT. I SAY IN THEORY, BECAUSE THERE ARE A FEW
SCENARIOS IN WHICH THE CLOUDS HANG ON A BIT LONGER, OR THE WINDS
DON'T FULLY DECOUPLE. THIS WOULD MAINLY EFFECT THE FROST POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER-30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
GIVEN THAT AFOREMENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, JUST
LIKE I MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LONG THESE CLOUDS LINGER, AND HOW MIXED WE STAY. IN THE EVENT ALL
OF THESE THINGS AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER, THEN ONLY
PATCHY FROST IS REALLY ANTICIPATED.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN
REGARDING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST ONLY
MAINTAINS MINIMAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, BUT IF THE LOW WERE TO DEEPEN
FARTHER TO THE WEST, THEN THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
CHANCES. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS SYSTEM WOULD REINFORCE THIS COLDER
AIRMASS BY TUESDAY, SLOWING THE WARMING TREND WE'RE GOING TO
EXPERIENCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS. PATCHY FOG FORMATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME OF THE RIVER BASINS, AND WILL MAINLY
BE SHALLOW IN NATURE. TCL WAS ALREADY OBSERVING SOME OF THIS
SHALLOW FOG, AND WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION NEAR MGM
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FOR NOW, MIFG WAS ADDED IN AS A TEMPO TO
ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THOSE OBSERVED CONDITIONS AT TCL. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT REMAINING TERMINALS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING CALM OR VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND 20FT WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINRH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO
THE UPPER 30S, WITH LOW TO MID 40S FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MINRHS DROPPING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
FORTUNATELY, 20FT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RHS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 34 65 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 36 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 38 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 37 66 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 36 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 39 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 39 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 38 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-
COOSA-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...56/GDG
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