421
FXUS64 KBMX 011738
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WARM AND DRY PATTERN BY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AS CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY START TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE, AS THE OUTER EDGES OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
START TO SKIRT OUR NORTH ZONES. UNFORTUNATELY, MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO THESE AREAS, WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING, AS LOWS INTO MONDAY
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW-30S AND 40S. ADDITIONAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SCOPE WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR. REGARDLESS, WE WILL LIKELY BE
EVALUATING THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORY COME THIS TIME
TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO WARM AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO A MORE SEASONABLE FEEL. LOWS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AS WELL, WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP PUTTING THEM BACK INTO THE
MID-40S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION, MINRH VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY
REBOUND THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 30-40%
RANGE BY TUESDAY. HERE IS WHERE THEY SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS NO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 59 36 65 / 10 50 10 0
ANNISTON 44 61 39 65 / 10 40 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 46 59 39 65 / 10 40 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 61 39 67 / 10 20 10 0
CALERA 45 62 39 66 / 10 30 10 0
AUBURN 45 66 42 66 / 0 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 44 68 39 69 / 10 20 20 0
TROY 42 68 39 67 / 0 10 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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