787
FXUS65 KBOI 151029
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA. WE START WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER INTERIOR
WA/OR/CA THAT WILL BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF A LOW IN NW NEVADA THIS
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEVELOP SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN-MOST PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH SNOW LEVEL 4500-5000 FEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO INCHES. THE WEAKER NORTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REST OF OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IMPACT OR QPF. HOWEVER, WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH IN OPEN AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY,
BREEZY, AND COLD AS AN UPPER RIDGE COMES INLAND FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. LATE SATURDAY THE NEXT GULF OF ALASKA STORM WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS IN EASTERN OREGON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST IN OUR CWA AND INCREASE AS THE STORM
APPROACHES. WARM-FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN (LOCALLY THROUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN) UP TO 6500 FEET MSL SUNDAY. THE STORM'S STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST, AND RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVEL, ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE STRONG GULF OF ALASKA
STORM WILL CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. A FLAT PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMER
TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC WARM FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND HIGH-MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OF OUR CWA.
THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN MODELS FORECAST YESTERDAY WHEN THEY
SHOWED A MUCH STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY
AND MILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US, BUT LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAKER
COUNTY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. RAIN AND SNOW AND LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EXPANDING INTO SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS 4000-5000 FT
MSL. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-15 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO
TO 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SE 5-15 KT SHIFTING TO
NORTH 25-30KT AFTER 18Z.
KBOI...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST BY 16Z AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 30KT FROM 15/18Z TO 16/03Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY: LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR. SURFACE WINDS W-NW 5-15 KT,
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15-25 KT. SUNDAY: WARM-FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW
MOVING IN FROM THE NW. CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR WITH ALL
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS SW-SE 5-15 KT
SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 15-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FT MSL SUNDAY, THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
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