818
FXUS65 KBOI 151702
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1002 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
NEVADA THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR, BUT
NOTHING HITTING THE GROUND BASED ON WEBCAMS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MT, SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO MT, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. A WARM FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN OR IN THE MORNING AND SOUTHWEST ID BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS RISE FROM THE VALLEY FLOORS TO
5000-7000 FT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. RAIN-SNOW WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
MAGIC VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
4000-5000 FT MSL. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TOMORROW
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-15 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 15-30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: NE-NW 25-35 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. SURFACE WINDS: NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT, CALMING TO NW 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...WARM-FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE NW
ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR WITH ALL MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS SW-SE 5-15 KT SUNDAY MORNING INCREASING TO
15-25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FT MSL SUNDAY,
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES IN.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR CWA. WE START WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER INTERIOR
WA/OR/CA THAT WILL BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF A LOW IN NW NEVADA THIS
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEVELOP SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN-MOST PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH SNOW LEVEL 4500-5000 FEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO INCHES. THE WEAKER NORTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REST OF OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IMPACT OR QPF. HOWEVER, WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH IN OPEN AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY,
BREEZY, AND COLD AS AN UPPER RIDGE COMES INLAND FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. LATE SATURDAY THE NEXT GULF OF ALASKA STORM WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS IN EASTERN OREGON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST IN OUR CWA AND INCREASE AS THE STORM
APPROACHES. WARM-FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN (LOCALLY THROUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN) UP TO 6500 FEET MSL SUNDAY. THE STORM'S STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST, AND RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVEL, ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STRONG GULF OF ALASKA
STORM WILL CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. A FLAT PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND WARMER
TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC WARM FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND HIGH-MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OF OUR CWA.
THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN MODELS FORECAST YESTERDAY WHEN THEY
SHOWED A MUCH STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY
AND MILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US, BUT LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAKER
COUNTY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
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