884
FXUS65 KBOI 160312
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
812 PM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE BULK OF
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WORKING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLACKEN AS
WELL, WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
04/06Z. SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH 04/06Z, THEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
KBOI...VFR WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THROUGH 04/06Z,
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH AFTER 06Z.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTS IMPACTS THE
REGION. CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
LOW CEILINGS FOR EASTERN OREGON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
TRANSITIONING OVER SOUTHEAST ID INTO MT THIS EVENING. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FOCUSED OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WARM FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN OR IN THE MORNING
AND SOUTHWEST ID BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS RISE FROM THE
VALLEY FLOORS TO 5000-7000 FT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
6000 FEET.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN US ON MONDAY, WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST, BUT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN-SNOW MIX
WITH A LOW CHANCE (<10-20% CHANCE) OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ANYWHERE
FROM 3-6 INCHES IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE WEST CENTRAL-
BOISE MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 12 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ON HIGHER SUMMITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD
IN ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
PACNW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING WARMER CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 5000-6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL DROP TO
4000-5000 FEET OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE
MINIMAL.
DETERMINISTIC AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THEN STRAY AWAY FROM THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN, WITH MOST MEMBERS NOW
INDICATING A CONTINUED WET AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS
WOULD BRING US PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...MC
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SA
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