832
FXUS65 KBOI 201026
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST HAS INDUCED A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
THE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS THE COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE PACIFIC WILL BE TARGETING OUR REGION STARTING TODAY AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-
FAIRFIELD LINE, WHERE LIQUID TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS NEAR VALLEY FLOORS THIS MORNING
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES WITHIN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE NORTH COULD RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON THURSDAY
AS SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 6000-7000 FEET. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC STORM ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL BECOME
DISORGANIZED THIS WEEKEND, SENDING A SERIES OF TROUGHS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
CREATE BREEZY WINDS, LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 3000-4500 FT MSL, AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SERIES
OF TROUGHS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH PRECIP CHANCES
20-40% FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NOTABLY COOLER SUNDAY, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TUE/WED, BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
KBNO-KONO-KSUN LINE THIS MORNING, THEN EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH
BY THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR
THE MTNS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS 3000-5000 FT MSL
TODAY, RISING TO 5500-7500 FT MSL LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS: S TO SE 15-25 KT, GUSTS UP TO
30-45 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 40-60 KT.
KBOI
VFR AND VIRGA. VERY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING OR LATE
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: SE 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY IDZ011-013.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ THIS MORNING
ORZ061-062-064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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