945
FXUS65 KBOI 170416
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
916 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OR THIS
EVENING AND BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA, IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE
4000-5000 FEET, EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ID
MOUNTAINS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS OF 2000-3000 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS
BAKER COUNTY AND NORTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES, AND THE
UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF BURNS TO BOISE. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT,
THEN DECREASE AND BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIP. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS 3000-4500 FEET MSL. SURFACE
WINDS: SE-SW 5-15 KT. GUSTS 20-30 KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-NW 20-40 KT.
KBOI...RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER TUE/06Z AND WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
BY TUE/12Z. CIGS LOWERING TO 1000-1500 FEET IN PRECIPITATION,
OTHERWISE 3000-4000 FT. SURFACE WINDS: SE 4-8 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND STARTS UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF E-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF W-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH HAS LED TO A HEAVY WET SNOW
TODAY. OPEN VALLEYS, LIKE THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE SEEN SNOW CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS PUSH 4-4500 FEET AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE COLD AIR
SCOURED OUT WILL STAY RAIN OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN MTNS AND COLD VALLEYS. HAVE ADDED THE BOISE MTNS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CATCH THE
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED IN VALLEYS AND 4 TO 8 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS ON TOP OF WHAT HAS FALLEN THROUGH
TODAY.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
VALLEYS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN 2" AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF E-CENTRAL OREGON
AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. WITH WARMER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
ALOFT, EXPECT LOWER VALLEYS TO START SETTING UP UNDER AN
INVERSION, WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING. GIVEN THE CURRENT
RAIN/SNOW THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN AMIDST
UPPER RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER REGIME
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR INVERSIONS IS LIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN STAGNANT CONDITIONS. RIDGE BREAKDOWN LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY, WITH A REDUCTION IN INVERSION
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
HIGH DURING THIS TIME, GENERALLY 4500 FEET OR HIGHER, WHICH
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY TO MOUNTAIN
AND HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY
IDZ011-013-028-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY ORZ062.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JR
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