488
FXUS65 KBOI 171022
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LIGHT
WARM-FRONTAL RAIN AND SNOW STILL FALLING IN IDAHO AT
3 AM MST BUT RADAR SHOWED IT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN OREGON. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5AM MST.
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS MORNING
BUT CONTINUE IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PCPN AMOUNTS (FROM 5 AM MST TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MST
WEDNESDAY) SHOULD BE LESS THAN .10 INCH IN THE VALLEYS
AND UP TO .40 INCH (OR UP TO 4 INCHES NEW SNOW) IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A
TRAILING WEAK IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING
FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF PCPN AS IT PASSES THROUGH. SYNOPTIC
MODELS THEN HAVE A FLAT PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVING
RAPIDLY INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT,
MODELS BRING AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
AND BEGIN ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WITH THE USUAL
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.
VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGHS IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SPREADING A 50-70% CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NEXT
TROUGH ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND ANOTHER EARLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS,
AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY MID NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 4500-6500 FT MSL DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING NOTABLE SNOW TOTALS OVER
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FROM THE MULTI-DAY ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION FOR TAF SITES TODAY,
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN PRECIP. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500 FT MSL
RISING TO 4500-5500 FT MSL BY MID-DAY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
WED MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W-NW 20-40 KT.
KBOI...MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN
TAPERING OFF AFTER TUE/12Z, AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE. RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE 4-10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING
IDZ011-013-028-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
ORZ062.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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