536
FXUS65 KBOI 162122
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
222 PM MST THU JAN 16 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE NIGHT
OF PERSISTENT CONDITIONS BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES IN FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY
A DUSTING ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS, STRONGEST IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 25-30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAPID
COOLING ALOFT WILL END THE INVERSION AND AIR STAGNATION IN THE
VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER
UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC, BUT WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER ONLY 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM TONIGHT'S
LOWS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW COVER. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS WINTER ON THE IDAHO SIDE AS MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR COMES IN.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLD, DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTERN BASINS ON THE
IDAHO SIDE, CLOSEST TO THE ARCTIC SURGE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WARM THE LOWER LEVELS TOO
QUICKLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE COMES BACK
INLAND. OUR FORECAST IS THEREFORE COLDER THAN MOST MODELS AND
ANOTHER INVERSION EPISODE IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: N 20-30KT.
KBOI...VFR. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS, BECOMING NW 10-15 KT 18Z-24Z
SATURDAY.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. SURFACE WINDS NW 10-20KT SATURDAY, GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KMUO AFTER 20Z SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL NORTH
40-50KT.
AIR STAGNATION
AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR VALLEYS IN SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL IMPROVE MIXING AND END THE INVERSION LATER FRIDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY
IDZ011>016-028>030-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ FRIDAY
ORZ061>064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....LC
AIR STAGNATION...LC
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