751
FXUS65 KBOI 170404
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
904 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWER
ELEVATION SITES BELOW 4-4.5KFT WILL SEE ANYTHING FROM SNOW TO A
COLD RAIN OR WINTERY MIX AS TEMPERATURES STRADDLE FREEZING.
COLDER VALLEYS IN SE OREGON AND ALONG THE OR/ID BORDER WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN (NO MORE THAN
20% CHANCE) WHILE FURTHER UP THE SNAKE PLAIN IT WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN/SNOW OR COLD RAIN. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW COULD SEE
ACCUMULATION ON COLDER SURFACES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LESS
THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. THE UPPER WEISER BASIN WILL BE AN
OUTLIER WHERE UP TO 2" OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT ROAD
SURFACES. IN THE MOUNTAINS, WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR HEAVIER
SNOW ALONG N/S ORIENTED RIDGELINES WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
OVER A FOOT ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNTS, MOSTLY FOR THE COLDER LOWER ELEVATION SITES
TALKED ABOUT ABOVE.
AVIATION
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, DECREASING MONDAY
EVE. GENERALLY LOW VFR TO IFR WITH RAIN, AND IFR TO LIFR WITH
SNOW. A 20% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AT KONO/KEUL MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS 2500-4000 FEET MSL. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS, BECOMING S TO W 5-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
W-NW 20-30 KT.
KBOI...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS AND MIST CREATING MVFR/IFR THROUGH
MONDAY. WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
DECREASING AFTER TUE/00Z. FOG OR LOW CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 3-6 KT OVERNIGHT, THEN W TO NW 5-10 KT
AFTER MON/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTH PACIFIC UPPER
LOW NEAR 50N/135W AT 18Z WILL OPEN TO A TROUGH AND MOVE INLAND
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY THEN EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW AND LOW-ELEVATION RAIN WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHTER PCPN CONTINUING MONDAY, THEN DECREASING FURTHER MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PCPN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN .25 INCH IN THE
VALLEYS, .25 TO .50 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT UP TO 1.00 INCH
IN THE HIGHEST IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.
TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE VALLEYS, 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, 2 TO 6 INCHES IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND UP
TO 12 INCHES ON THE HIGHER IDAHO PEAKS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE UPPER WEISER RIVER VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS, AND THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AT 2 PM
MST.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL START NEAR VALLEY
FLOORS, BUT WILL LIKELY RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S STORM WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
WEATHER TO TREND DRIER AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN.
HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN BY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JB
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