462
FXUS65 KBOI 171636
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
DISCUSSION
LATEST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING, AND
WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO EXIT OUR IDAHO ZONES. THEN
PARTIAL CLEARING BUT LEADING TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM, DUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, SHOULD BE THE LAST ONE FOR ABOUT A WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN US, BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO OUR CWA. CURRENT
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY LINES UP WELL WITH LATEST MODELS,
AND LONGER TERM FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH LONGER RANGE
ENSEMBLES. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING,
DECREASING TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ISOLATED
TONIGHT. GENERALLY MVFR/IFR IN RAIN, AND IFR/LIFR WITH SNOW
AND/OR FOG/LOW CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500' MSL. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS,
BECOMING SW TO W 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AFTER 18Z.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 20-30 KT.
KBOI...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, DECREASING AFTER TUE/00Z.
IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 9 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500
FEET MSL THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW, WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM
THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BUT STILL EXPECT SNOW AT MOST
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BELOW
3500 TO 4500 FEET MSL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
5000 FEET MSL BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AS A PAIR
OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTS WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA,
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO SOUTHEAST OR AND SOUTHWEST
ID. TEMPERATURES REACH LOW 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND MUCH WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
STAGNANT AIR IS POSSIBLE AS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH POOR MIXING, ESPECIALLY LOWER TREASURE VALLEY, LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM IN
THE SNAKE BASIN, BUT SUN ANGLES FAVOR MORE MIXING NOW THAN MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS WOULD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
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