810
FXUS65 KBOI 180359
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MST MON FEB 17 2025
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF A SNOW PACK FOR MANY) AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMATION
TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE PATCHY AND MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE BEST CLEARING OCCURS. AS OF THIS EVENING, THE FAVORED SPOTS
FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE THE BAKER VALLEY, UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
SNAKE PLAIN MOSTLY WEST OF MTN HOME OR ALONG THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE OF A LOW CEILING VS DENSE FOG IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS AND TOUCH UP
FOG COVERAGE.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS CREATING MVFR/IFR AT TIMES, THROUGH
TUE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 2000-3500 FEET MSL
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEGRADING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AT MOST TAF SITES, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TUE
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT W-SW 10-15 FOR KJER/KTWF/KGNG. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 15-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED. A
60% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN FOG OR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE 3-5 KT, BECOMING NW 4-7 KT TUE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXIT OUR CWA SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING. FURTHER SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3
INCHES TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY AND OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WITH MORE RAIN AND
SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT TROUGH SHOULD
BE THE LAST ONE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BLOW ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN
EAST OF BOISE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH.
LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY EXCEPT NEAR JEROME/ID WHERE NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BLOW IN FROM THE COLD CAMAS PRAIRIE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS DECREASING DURING THE DAY AND THEN ENDING OVERNIGHT. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE BY QUICKLY FRIDAY, BRINGING A COOL AND DRY
DAY. WESTERLY FLOW THEN TAKES OVER, SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENTERS THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE TYPICAL MOUNTAIN-SNOW AND VALLEY-
RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS (4000-5000 FEET MSL), WITH
LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7000 FEET MSL BY LATE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN WARM TO NEAR-NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE- NORMAL
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM, MAKING THIS A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SP
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