529
FXUS65 KBOI 182127
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
227 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
DENSE FOG HAS
MOSTLY MIXED OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL START TONIGHT, WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN MIXING TO RAIN-SNOW MIX THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL THEN REFORM IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEYS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF INCOMING PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 3500-4500 FEET BY THE LATER AFTERNOON.
STEADY RAIN WILL FALL FOR VALLEYS BELOW ABOUT 4000 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENING, AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, SOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE,
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY, WITH MOUNTAINS SWITCHING BACK TO
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
HIGHER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SEEING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
MCCALL, ID HAS A FORECAST TOTAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ABOUT A
40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE A WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL
FAVORED BY ALL THE MODELS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FROM BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRI-SAT TO ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE. HOWEVER, FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND RAIN/SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP IS SHOWN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH BURNS, BOISE, AND
JEROME ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
IN AND NEAR KONO. FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE (IFR) IN SOME
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS KONO AND KEUL, AFTER WED/02Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CAUSING MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS NEAR VALLEY FLOORS
RISING TO 3500-5000 FEET MSL. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS,
EXCEPT W-SW 10-15 KT AT KJER/KTWF/KGNG UNTIL WED/02Z. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W-NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...LOW VFR CEILINGS. MVFR SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
AROUND WED/16Z, MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AFTER WED/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 3-6 KT BECOMING SE 5-10 KT AFTER
WED/02Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
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