505
FXUS65 KBOI 191649
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
DISCUSSION
WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH SLEET AND POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING, WITH HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS CREATING SNOW COVERED ROADS IN NORTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY/BAKER COUNTY AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. THIS HAS NECESSITATED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
THAT IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM A WARMING SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE VALLEY. A BRIEF SWITCH BACK TO SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. DRYING AND WARMING WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THIS MORNING.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
SNOW TODAY. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN SE OREGON LOWER
VALLEYS AND WEST OF KEUL THIS MORNING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW
LEVELS RISING TO 3500-5000 FEET MSL BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS:
GENERALLY E TO S 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 20-35 KT.
KBOI...MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING TO RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-15 KT, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEMS IS ON TRACK TO
AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN. MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST COLD AIR IS EMBANKED FROM ONTARIO UP
THROUGH BAKER - COLDER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING -
WHICH WILL LIKELY FAVOR SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF SNOW THAN IN
OTHER AREAS. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT BELOW ABOUT 5000 FEET, AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY
AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE TREASURE
VALLEY, WHERE THERE'S ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING AN INCH AROUND THE BOISE AREA, AND A 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM ONTARIO NORTHWARD. A RAIN/SNOW MIX (AND
EVENTUALLY FAVORING RAIN) IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS SNOW
LEVELS CLIMB TO 4000-5000 FEET. MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS MAY STILL
BE QUITE HIGH IN SOME LOCATIONS, REACHING 8-12 INCHES IN PARTS
OF THE BOISE AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION AS UPPER
RIDGING REBUILDS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SERIES OF CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY. HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS OF 6000-7000 FT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS AND LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OFF THE NW
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
IDZ012-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST /1 PM PST/ THIS
AFTERNOON ORZ062>064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JY/JR
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