710
FXUS65 KBOI 200333
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
DISCUSSION
AT 8 PM MST LIGHT PCPN WAS STILL FALLING IN
WESTERN ID AND DECREASING OR ENDING IN EASTERN OR. SNOW LEVEL
WAS NEAR 4000 FEET MSL AND GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM WEST TO
EAST. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW AT BOI BEFORE ENDING IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. SNOW AT MCCALL/ID WILL ACCUMULATE
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG WERE FORMING IN EASTERN OR THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING AND MILD LATER SATURDAY UNDER
ANOTHER TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE, THEN HEAVIER VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW (ABOVE 6000 FEET MSL) SUNDAY AS AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IN THE PACIFIC SURGES INLAND ACROSS OR INTO WESTERN ID.
CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST MODELS. NO UPDATE.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS FALL FROM 3500-5500 FEET MSL
TO 3000-4000 FEET MSL BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS: E TO
S 5-15 KT KJER/KTWF AND W 5-15 KT KBNO, OTHERWISE VARIABLE 5 KT
OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE W-NW 5-15 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W TO NW 20-35 KT.
KBOI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN THEN SNOW. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 04Z BEFORE ENDING BY THU/10Z. SURFACE
WINDS: SE 5-15 KT, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT, SHIFTING TO THE NW
LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER THU/02Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... RAIN AND SNOW ARE
FALLING IN THE REGION, WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR LINGERING IN
LOW ELEVATION VALLEYS NEAR ONTARIO, OR, KEEPING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY AS SNOW. AS OF 1:30PM, ONTARIO AND
BURNS, OR HAS SWITCHED BACK TO RAIN. WITH PERIODS OF A RAIN-SNOW
MIX LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR RAIN-SHADOWING IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY,
KEEPING BOISE-NAMPA MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE METRO AREA AS THE WINDS
DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET, WITH A SWITCH TO RAIN AND GRAUPEL FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BELOW 4500-5500 FEET AS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. SNOW TOTALS AROUND
2-4 INCHES WILL OCCUR BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
MOUNTAINS. THANKS TO THE DECREASING PRECIPITATION, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO FORM AS WELL, MAINLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BLUE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
NEAR THE ID-NV BORDER AND OVER THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION, WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN BELOW ABOUT
4000-5000 FEET AND LIGHT SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY TARGETING THE NORTHERN TIER. PRELIMINARY PRECIP
TOTALS OF OVER AN INCH ARE DEPICTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE WELL ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS, LIMITING THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. AN UPPER TROUGH
THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ONCE AGAIN
TAKING AIM ON OUR NORTHERN AREAS (BAKER COUNTY AND CENTRAL
IDAHO). SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER, DOWN TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET -
STILL WELL ABOVE LOWER VALLEYS. A HIGH- AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
THEN FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS - INCLUDING THE SNAKE PLAIN.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS 3500-5500 FEET MSL, LOWERING TO 3000-
4000 FEET MST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS:
GENERALLY E TO S 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, SHIFTING TO THE
W-NW TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-W 20-35 KT SHIFTING
TO THE NW-N TONIGHT.
KBOI...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY THU/06Z. SURFACE WINDS:
NW 5-10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....BW
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