690
FXUS65 KBOI 202104
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
204 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE SUNSHINE AND
WIND ARE FINALLY SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING THE
SNAKE PLAIN. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOCALLY AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
WITH FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR A 15 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOIST
PACIFIC PLUME SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES
WIDESPREAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN, WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET,
SO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO THE EARLY LONG-TERM, WITH RAIN CONTINUING SUNDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS MONDAY. THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF
LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500' MSL SEEING OVER A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS IN THE SNAKE PLANE AND LOWER THIRD OF
OUR AREA WON'T SEE AS MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION, WITH
AMOUNTS UNDER 0.2" IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND AMOUNTS UNDER
0.05" SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME. SNOW LEVELS STAY ABOVE 6000' MSL,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RIVER RESPONSE TO THIS NEW LIQUID QPF
AND MELTING LOW ELEVATION SNOW. MONDAY PROVIDES A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE
IS BEGINNING TO BE MORE OF A MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE SHORTWAVE
SKIMMING OUR NORTHERN AREA, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
TO 50%-60% IN BOISE, VALLEY, AND ADAMS COUNTIES. BEYOND TUESDAY,
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN ALLOWING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LEANING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM HIGH 40S TO HIGH 50S
(GENERALLY INCREASING AS YOU MOVE SOUTH), AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE MID TO HIGH 30S.
AVIATION
VFR. PATCHY MFR/IFR VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRI/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT NW
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN S-CENTRAL ID EAST OF KBOI UNTIL
FRI/02Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW-N 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR, THEN MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER FRI/05Z.
SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 6-12 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
AFTER FRI/02Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS FAVORING RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS,
EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KMYL SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY,
ELSEWHERE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....BW
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