345
FXUS65 KBOI 211003
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 AM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALIZED FOG IS PRESENT
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN WESTERN IDAHO AND
EASTERN OREGON THIS MORNING, AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAMAS PRAIRIES INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD BURN OFF ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A RATHER
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY, WITH AN
INITIAL WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A DUSTING
OF SNOW ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THOSE AREAS, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED RICH IVT PLUME WILL BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON AND IDAHO ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE BOISE, SOUTHERN
WALLOWA, AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. ECMWF EFI OUTPUT
SUGGESTS TOTALS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL BE AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC WILL BE THE
RISING SNOW LEVELS DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE EVENT,
REACHING 7000-8000 FEET IN MANY AREAS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAIN
OVER EXISTING SNOWPACK IMMEDIATELY BELOW THOSE ELEVATIONS.
FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS SHOW THE WEISER RIVER APPROACHING (BUT
REMAINING JUST SHY OF) ACTION STAGE ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY
AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS SOLIDLY IN RAIN.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN THROUGH
THE LATER HOURS OF MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRING BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 4000-5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FAVORING SNOWFALL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS. PEAK DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARMER END IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, A LARGE-SCALE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC NW REGION AND SUSTAIN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT IN PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BEFORE FRI/18Z. LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW-N 5-10 KT, BECOMING W 10-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
KBOI...GENERALLY VFR. A 25% CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MIST
OCCURRING BEFORE FRI/16Z. SURFACE WINDS: SE 4-12 KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR SATURDAY, EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE KBNO-KEUL-KSUN LINE DURING THE MORNING.
THEN, ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ARRIVES. HIGH SNOW LEVELS FAVOR RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KMYL. MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS: E-
S 5-15 KT SATURDAY, THEN SE-SW SE 5-15 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JY/JR
AVIATION.....SH
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