047
FXUS65 KBOI 280316
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
916 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
DISCUSSION
THE EVENING KBOI WEATHER BALLOON SHOWED A WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB (~18KFT MSL), MORE
RESEMBLING A SUMMER PROFILE. THIS CERTAINLY ALLOW GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHICH RESULTED
IN GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS SE OREGON AND FAR SW IDAHO, TO
INCLUDE THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH STILL
BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WELL
THIS EVENING. ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MTNS
WHICH ARE CARRYING A 15-30% CHANCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COVER LIGHT SHOWERS
MOSTLY OVER MALHEUR COUNTY THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS OUT FOR THE SILVIES RIVER IN NORTHERN
HARNEY COUNTY WHICH IS ON THE RISE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS SNOW
MELT CONTINUES. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MALHEUR
RIVER AT VALE FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO INCREASED RELEASES FROM
UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW REDEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: SW-W
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT, DECREASING TO VARIABLE 5-15 KT BY
06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: W 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE) THROUGH 06Z, THEN
AGAIN AFTER 15Z. SURFACE WINDS: W 5-15 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KT BY 06Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DECREASING EACH DAY AFTER. GENERALLY VFR-
MVFR IN RAIN, WITH REDUCTIONS TO IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS 5-6 KFT MSL FRIDAY, LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT MSL
SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY SW- NW 5-15 KT, BECOMING S-SE
10-20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MAGIC VALLEY
ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN SE OREGON
(SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES) UNTIL 5 PM PDT
FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
ALSO, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SUNSET IN EASTERN ZONES IN IDAHO. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 10-15 DEGREES FURTHER COOLING FRIDAY,
WITH SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 5000-5500 FEET MSL IN OREGON AND
5300-6000 FEET MSL IN IDAHO. NEW SNOW LESS THAN TWO INCHES,
HOWEVER. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CWA-WIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE, WITH SNOW LEVEL NEAR
4500 FEET MSL, BUT AGAIN ONLY AN INCH OR SO NEW SNOWFALL.
CHANCE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, THIS TIME ONLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. CLEARING
AND COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE SET OF
WEATHER IS DUE FOR THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE DAY FOR
CERTAINTY OF DRY WEATHER WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER
THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE FIRST OF MANY
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ECMWF, GFS, AND NBM ENSEMBLES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING AREAS OF CAPE, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LOW (SOMEWHERE
50-350 J/KG) WITH THE NBM GIVING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
GREATEST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER BEING 15% OR BELOW AREA-WIDE.
BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TWO QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS SHOW BETWEEN
COMPARING THE GFS AND ECMWF, WITH THE GFS HAVING A FUJIWHARA
EFFECT SLINGING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING A
TYPICAL ONLAND OF A TROUGH SYSTEM. THIS IS CREATING LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN QPF AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY INTO LATER TIME
PERIODS. THAT BEING SAID, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
LIKELY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GENERALLY 20%-50% AREA WIDE
WITH PERIODS OF 60-80% IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AT 4000-6000FT MSL
SUNDAY/MONDAY, LOWERING TO 3500-4500FT MSL THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL COME WITH ANY ONE SINGLE
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION, AMOUNTS WILL NICKEL AND DIME THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25" OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
TUESDAY-THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50-70% IN LOCATIONS BELOW
3500FT. IN THE SAME TIME FRAME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW
GREATER THAN 4" WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 80% IN THE WEST-
CENTRAL ID AND OWYHEE MTNS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
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