877
FXUS65 KBOI 280854
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A DUST CLOUD GENERATED BY
STRONG WINDS IN NORTHWEST NEVADA YESTERDAY REACHED SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RESULTED IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS THE SUSPENDED DUST SETTLED
BACK TOWARD THE SURFACE. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE DUST EASTWARD BEFORE SUNRISE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM MDT SHOWS THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
AHEAD OF IT, SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO
LATER IN THE DAY. SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
(SHORTWAVE), THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE INTO THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-STANLEY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS TODAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 5,500 FEET. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING (40%
CHANCE) AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. A COLDER AND DRIER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND SUNDAY, REACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO THE LATE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SOUNDED LIKE A BROKEN RECORD REPEATING THE
SAME LINE... THAT TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH IT (GENERALLY GREATER THAN 70% AREA WIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON).
THE SIGNAL OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS LOW
WITH <15% AREA WIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL BREAK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING FROM 4500-5500FT MONDAY TO
2500-3500FT TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM PLAYS OUT, BOTH IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
UNWAVERING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SWINGS INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT,
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AND CLOSES A 500MB
LOW JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECPITATION FOR OUR OREGON COUNTIES AS WELL AS
BELOW 4000FT MSL IN IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN AT 30-50% AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH 60-70% IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING IN THE
PACIFIC FRIDAY MORNING AND PROGRESSING EAST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS. SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 3500-5000FT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HOVERING THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK HOVER SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY MORNING, SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN WEST-
CENTRAL ID MTNS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS: SW-W 10-20 KT, BECOMING
VARIABLE 5-15 KT BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: SW-W 15-30KT.
KBOI...VFR. RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF AROUND 20UTC, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (15%
CHANCE) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT,
GUSTING TO 30 KT IN THUNDER FRIDAY. BECOMING NW 5-10 KT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR-MVFR IN RAIN, WITH REDUCTIONS TO IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS 5-6KFT MSL FRIDAY, LOWERING TO 3500-4500FT MSL SATURDAY
AND THEN TO 2500-3500FT MSL SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY SW-NW 5-
15 KT, BECOMING S-SE 10-20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
SNOWMELT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE
RISING WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO INTO THE WEEKEND. A FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SILVIES RIVER NEAR BURNS,
OREGON AND THE MALHEUR RIVER NEAR VALE, OREGON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS NEAR WATERWAYS SHOULD STAY ALERT TO CHANGING
CONDITIONS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, AS INDICATED BY THE CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES INTO
EARLY APRIL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
HYDROLOGY....JDS
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