666
FXUS65 KBOI 281623
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1023 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SE OREGON THIS
MORNING INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY MIDDAY, AND WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000-6000' MSL.
AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES EAST, SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OR AND
SOUTHWEST ID FROM THE SNAKE BASIN SOUTH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE THUNDER, GRAUPEL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT MIDDAY
SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS 5-6KFT MSL.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SMALL HAIL, GRAUPEL,
AND ERRATIC GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-15 KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: SW-W 15-25 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR. RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GRAUPEL POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT, EXCEPT
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. BECOMING NW 5-10 KT LATE
TONIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR-
MVFR IN RAIN, WITH REDUCTIONS TO IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
3500-4500FT MSL. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED ON SATURDAY, IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY, BECOMING S-SE 10-20 KT ON SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A DUST CLOUD GENERATED BY
STRONG WINDS IN NORTHWEST NEVADA YESTERDAY REACHED SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RESULTED IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS THE SUSPENDED DUST SETTLED
BACK TOWARD THE SURFACE. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE DUST EASTWARD BEFORE SUNRISE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 2 AM MDT SHOWS THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
AHEAD OF IT, SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO
LATER IN THE DAY. SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
(SHORTWAVE), THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE INTO THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-STANLEY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS TODAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 5,500 FEET. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING (40%
CHANCE) AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. A COLDER AND DRIER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND SUNDAY, REACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO THE LATE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SOUNDED LIKE A BROKEN RECORD REPEATING THE
SAME LINE... THAT TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH IT (GENERALLY GREATER THAN 70% AREA WIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON).
THE SIGNAL OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS LOW
WITH <15% AREA WIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL BREAK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING FROM 4500-5500FT MONDAY TO
2500-3500FT TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM PLAYS OUT, BOTH IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
UNWAVERING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SWINGS INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT,
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AND CLOSES A 500MB
LOW JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR OREGON COUNTIES AS WELL
AS BELOW 4000FT MSL IN IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN AT 30-50% AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH 60-70% IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING IN THE
PACIFIC FRIDAY MORNING AND PROGRESSING EAST OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS. SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 3500-5000FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HOVERING THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK HOVER SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page