072
FXUS65 KBOI 291600
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1000 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO OR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
SW IDAHO AND EXIT SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
NEAR 4000 FEET WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND BROAD AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FROM NE OREGON THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT: W-NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...MVFR/IFR THROUGH 18-20Z. RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS, WITH
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS:
NW 5-10 KT, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AFTER 18Z.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ARRIVING SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER. SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500FT MSL, RISING TO
5000-6000FT MSL SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT BECOMING S/SE 5-15 KT AFTER 18Z.
HYDROLOGY
SNOWMELT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO RAISE WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE HELPED SLOW RIVER RISES, BUT
MANY WATERWAYS REMAIN AT HIGH FLOW LEVELS. A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SILVIES RIVER NEAR BURNS, OREGON, AND
THE MALHEUR RIVER NEAR VALE, OREGON. THOSE WITH INTERESTS NEAR
WATERWAYS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INDICATED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FURTHER RIVER RISES INTO
EARLY APRIL.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 2 AM MDT, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
TROUGH POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE OREGON-
CALIFORNIA BORDER. WEAK BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST
HIGHLANDS OF IDAHO. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, PARTIAL CLEARING COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WHILE
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK, IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING, GRAUPEL,
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATER TONIGHT, WITH DRY
WEATHER PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4,000 TO 5,500 FEET MSL, ALLOWING
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHILE AREAS ABOVE 6,500
FEET COULD RECEIVE UP TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN SHIFT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD TROUGHING
PATTERN COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN STATES INCLUDING THE
BOISE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY SPREADING UNSETTLED, WET CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30% - 50% ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER
MOUNTAINS SHOWING VALUES AROUND 50% - 80%. DURING THIS ONSET OF
SHOWERS, LIGHT SNOW WILL DUST THE MOUNTAINOUS ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2800 TO 3500 FEET WHILE RAIN WILL POUR (TRICKLE OUT) OUT ACROSS
THE MAJOR VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE FOR MORE
INTENSIFIED CONVECTION AS A RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR MORE DEVELOPED CELLS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO FAIR
(AND MORE PLEASANT) AS A DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS EXITING LOW STARTING LATE FRIDAY. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BREEZY LEVELS FROM THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MEASURE IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HOVERING
AROUND THE MID 50'S, AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE LOW 60'S BY
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND THE MID 30'S,
AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....MC
HYDROLOGY....JDS
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....WH
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