998
FXUS65 KBOI 292037
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES TO
THE EAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CENTERED AROUND ONTARIO,
WHICH PICKED UP MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
THE MODELS DEPICT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ITS MOVEMENT
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR 4500-5000 FEET
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 12 HOUR DRY PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BETWEEN THE SYSTEM EXITING TO OUR EAST AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 6000
FEET WITH THE FRONT, LIMITING ANY SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER
WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHOWER PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON AND SW
IDAHO. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS, THE INSTABILITY IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5500
FEET, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE, MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY 100% OF MODEL
MEMBERS INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN US. THIS PATTERN WOULD ENTRENCH UNSETTLED, SHOWERY, AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR OUR AREA. MORE
DETAILED DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ENHANCING PRECIPITATION,
FIRST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE DETAILS WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM, WITH A SPLIT IN FAVORED SOLUTIONS. IN EITHER
CASE, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. BY THE WEEKEND
IT APPEARS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 FEET
DURING THE WEEK, MEANING THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN
ADDITION TO THEIR SNOWPACK. CURRENT PROJECTIONS GIVE A 20-30%
CHANCE OF TWO INCHES OR MORE WITH EACH STORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ABOVE 4500 FEET, INCLUDING MCCALL...AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS.
AVIATION
LINGERING MVFR/IFR THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. BECOMING VFR AREA-
WIDE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 02-03Z THEN LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: W/NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...MVFR, BECOMING VFR AFTER 21Z. LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING, DRYING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: NW 10-15 KT,
BECOMING SE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 03Z.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF
SUNDAY, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ARRIVING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER. SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500FT
MSL, RISING TO 5000-6000FT MSL SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S/SE 5-15 KT AFTER 18Z.
HYDROLOGY
COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THE SILVIES RIVER NEAR
BURNS AND MALHEUR RIVER NEAR VALE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
HYDROLOGY....BW
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