328
FXUS65 KBOI 302010
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
210 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COOL AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT HAS
REACHED SE OREGON AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND INTO SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ALONG THE FRONT. INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH, GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-JEROME LINE. BRIEF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN (SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONGER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL, AND BRIEF HEAVY
PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4000-5000 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT/HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS DECREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY, CROSSING
INTO SE OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS NEAR VALLEY FLOORS RISE TO
AROUND 4000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON, WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS IN THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
OUR REGION WILL BE
WITHIN THE "BACKSIDE" OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 4000 FT MSL AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION VARIES FROM 40-80% IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 10-30% IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONE FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN AROUND 3000 FT MSL IN THE
MORNING, RISING TO AROUND 4000 FT MSL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT ON WED. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
NORTH TO NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONTO THE COAST AND THEN CLOSES OFF
TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SUN. MODELS ARE IN WELL-ABOVE-
AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN AND THEREFORE THIS
IS RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SE OREGON AND INTO SW IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AROUND 30/22Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS: E-S 5-15 KT, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTER
31/02Z. GUSTS 15-25 KT IN SE OREGON THROUGH 31/02Z. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10KFT: SW 20-40 KT, INCREASING TO 30-50 KT BY 31/12Z.
KBOI...VFR. PERIODS OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 30/22Z. 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
FROM 31/00Z TO 31/06Z. SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT.
HYDROLOGY
COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWED THE RUNOFF FROM THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
RIVERS LEVELS TO REMAIN STABLE OR SLOWLY RECEDE. THERE ARE
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL ADD SOME SNOW
TO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK, MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET. A FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR THE SILVIES RIVER
NEAR BURNS AND MALHEUR RIVER NEAR VALE.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP
HYDROLOGY....BW
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