007
FXUS65 KBOI 310318
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DISCUSSION
COOLER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OR AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE OREGON
COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
INLAND BY TUESDAY, BRINGING COLDER AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG W-SW WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GRAUPEL ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS 5-
6KFT OVERNIGHT, FALLING TO 4-5KFT ON MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 5-15 KT, BECOMING SW-NW 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-35 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT: SW 25-45 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CEILINGS. A 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL 31/06Z. SHOWERS
INCREASING AFTER 31/15Z WITH A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-15 KT, BECOMING NW 5-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER 31/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT HAS
REACHED SE OREGON AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND INTO SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ALONG THE FRONT. INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON THIS EVENING AND
SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH, GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-JEROME LINE. BRIEF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN (SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONGER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL, AND BRIEF HEAVY
PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4000-5000 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT/HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS DECREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY, CROSSING
INTO SE OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SNOW LEVELS NEAR VALLEY FLOORS RISE TO
AROUND 4000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON, WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS IN THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
WITHIN THE "BACKSIDE" OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 4000 FT MSL AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION VARIES FROM 40-80% IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 10-30% IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ONE FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN AROUND 3000 FT MSL IN THE
MORNING, RISING TO AROUND 4000 FT MSL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT ON WED. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
NORTH TO NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONTO THE COAST AND THEN CLOSES OFF
TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY, AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT AND SUN. MODELS ARE IN WELL-ABOVE-
AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN AND THEREFORE THIS
IS RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP
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