973  
FXUS65 KBOI 312036  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
236 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
FIRST ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH SW IDAHO PRODUCED  
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, AND LOTS OF SMALL HAIL WHICH COVERED THE  
GROUND ON SOME AREAS, INCLUDING THE BOISE METRO. THAT AREA OF  
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A  
NEW AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN SE OREGON. THE HI-RES MODELS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY  
WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY  
PROPAGATE INTO SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SNOWFALL THAT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. THE  
TREND OVERALL WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT, BUT  
INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY DUE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME  
HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS,  
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL, AND BRIEF PRECIP (INCLUDING SNOW ABOVE 3500  
FEET). THE TROUGH LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS, MAINLY  
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF  
PRECIPITATION IS LOWER (GENERALLY 15-40 PERCENT). THERE IS ALSO  
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN S-CENTRAL IDAHO.  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.  
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
THE FINAL PIECE OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS BY THURSDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE  
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER A 20-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU  
(HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS), THEY WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3000-4000 FT MSL THU INTO THU NIGHT.  
DRY WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE  
MOVES CLOSER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST  
MONDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT CHILLY - AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL THURSDAY, BUT QUICKLY WARM UP. WE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL  
FRIDAY, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY, AND 10-15 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT  
AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN, SO THIS IS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE  
FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
MAINLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING,  
WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AFTER 01/02. SNOW LEVELS 4-5KFT.  
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.  
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 10-20 KT WITH  
GUSTS 25-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT  
10KFT: SW 25-45 KT.  
 
KBOI...MAINLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS RESULTING IN LOW VFR  
CEILINGS. 20% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01/02Z.  
SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-15 KT, BECOMING NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25  
KT. BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IF WE GET A THUNDERSTORM  
CLOSE BY.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
MOST RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL DUE TO  
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE INCREASED FLOWS  
DOWNSTREAM FROM CONTROLLED RESERVOIR RELEASES, SUCH AS THE  
OWYHEE RIVER BELOW OWYHEE DAM. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT  
FOR THE SILVIES RIVER NEAR BURNS AND THE MALHEUR RIVER NEAR  
VALE.  
 
 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...BW  
LONG TERM....SP  
AVIATION.....SP  
HYDROLOGY....BW  
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