028
FXUS65 KBOI 240224
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
824 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH IS LIMITED,
CONFINING THE SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THIS
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
VFR WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: NW-NE 5-15
KT, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10KFT: VARIABLE 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS W-NW UP TO 10 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS (30% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER
ENDING BY SUNSET. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL LIMITED
BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.
THE TROUGH FORMS A LOW CENTER BY EARLY FRIDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AFTER SUNRISE. IN GENERAL, LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SHOWER LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER.
SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER WITH SBCAPES OF AROUND 800 J/KG AND SHEAR
AROUND 30 KTS TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS
CLEARING OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 125-150% OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE (10-20%
CHANCE) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME
HEATING AIDS WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY RANGE FROM
40-90% ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 6-7KFT MSL.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A LOW POTENTIAL
(10-30% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....ST
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