881
FXUS65 KBOI 120240 CCA
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT SUN MAY 11 2025
..CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT NOW
FAVORING EASTERN OREGON. WINDS ARE LINGERING NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT ARE SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND AS ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR DROPPING OF THE WIND ADVISORY LATER THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OR TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS: SW 10-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-45 KT THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG RIDGES AND NEAR NV BORDER. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SW-NW 5-15 KT BY MON/06Z. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 30-45 KT.
KBOI...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT SHIFTING NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING W-
SW 12-20 KT WITH GUSTS 30 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SW IDAHO
AROUND SUNSET WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH (REFERENCE GUST TO 61 MPH AT KTWF THIS AFTERNOON).
FURTHER WEST, A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON AND
INTO THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH SOME EXPANSION INTO BOISE MTNS AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN ALONG
THE ID/OR BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAP
MOST DEVELOPMENT OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO AND SNAKE PLAIN EAST OF
BOISE, GIVING THIS AREA A BREAK FROM THE RECENT SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTNS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.
LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL EXIT OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
FOR A 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
20% IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LOW WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH
THROUGH THE SNAKE BASIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A
FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL LOCALLY BREEZY WITH LOCAL GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
COLD AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY WINDS TO THE
AREA.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ015-029.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ061-063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...MC
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
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