914
FXUS65 KBOI 122038
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO NEAR
THE ID/OR BORDER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ALL
SHOWERS/STORMS, WHILE STRONGER STORMS IN OREGON HOLD THE CHANCE
FOR SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. WEAKER WINDS ALOFT
AND COOLER/WETTER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMOVE THE THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET ON TUESDAY SO MINOR ACCUMULATION (UP
TO 2") IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT LIQUID AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN 0.10" FOR
MOST SITES, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.25" IN THE MTNS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FIRE UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. TEMPERATURES ARE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY. A WEAK SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A 10- 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY
FROM THURSDAY. ON SATURDAY, A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEEPEN,
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM COULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, GENERALLY REACHING A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THE LOW CENTER TO OUR WEST AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, BUT NEAR ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW, KEEPING A 20-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE
LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS/STORMS. SNOW LEVELS 5-6KFT MSL
TONIGHT, RISING TO 6-7KFT MSL ON TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW
10-20 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT, DECREASING TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT ON TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW
15-30 KT, BECOMING W-NW 10- 20 KT AFTER 00Z/TUE.
KBOI...VFR. VIRGA NEAR THE TERMINAL TODAY. A 40-60% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 06Z. GUSTS TO 30 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST
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