181
FXUS65 KBOI 130240
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2025
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OREGON INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO, AFFECTING AREAS NEAR BAKER, MCCALL, AND
CAMBRIDGE. A FEW RANDOM LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SINCE MID-AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL STILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT - INCLUDING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE
5300 FEET EARLY TUE MORNING. THE OTHER NOTABLE IMPACT THIS
EVENING IS THE STRONG WIND OBSERVED OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY, WHERE
WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS AROUND THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MOUNTAIN HOME
AND TWIN FALLS OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AND SMALL HAIL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SW ID TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS/STORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 5-6KFT
MSL TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W-NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY
MORNING TO AFTERNOON. LIGHT W-NW WINDS TUESDAY MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH
CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO NEAR
THE ID/OR BORDER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ALL
SHOWERS/STORMS, WHILE STRONGER STORMS IN OREGON HOLD THE CHANCE
FOR SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. WEAKER WINDS ALOFT
AND COOLER/WETTER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMOVE THE THREAT OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET ON TUESDAY SO MINOR ACCUMULATION (UP
TO 2") IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT LIQUID AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN 0.10" FOR
MOST SITES, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.25" IN THE MTNS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FIRE UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO. TEMPERATURES ARE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY. A WEAK SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A 10- 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY
FROM THURSDAY. ON SATURDAY, A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEEPEN,
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM COULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, GENERALLY REACHING A 50-80% CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THE LOW CENTER TO OUR WEST AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, BUT NEAR ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW, KEEPING A 20-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE
LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST
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