377
FXUS65 KBOI 140814
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
214 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS
EASTWARD TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOWS
UP TO 35 MPH. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 6-7 KFT MSL.
GENERAL GUSTINESS UP TO 30 MPH IN OPEN TERRAIN, EXCEPT UP TO 40
MPH BETWEEN MTN HOME AND TWIN FALLS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND WINDS
CALMING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A 20-40% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER TERRAIN, AND A <10% CHANCE IN SE OREGON AND
THE SNAKE PLAIN.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH
SATURDAY AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING INLAND IN THE PACNW
AND THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AND REMAINS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT (60-80%), BEFORE
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (DOWN TO 15-
30%). INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 6500-8000 FT MSL
SATURDAY DOWN TO 5000-7000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FT
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONT, LASTING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY
FROM AROUND MOUNTAIN HOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. OREGON WILL BE DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE.
STORMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS: 6-7K FEET MSL.
SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT, STRONGEST FROM
NEAR MUO TO KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: N TO NW 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND DRY. WINDS W-NW 5-15 KT THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP
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