033
FXUS65 KBOI 141544
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO (MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY) TODAY. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO EAST OF BOISE THIS MORNING WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED
YESTERDAY, BUT STILL AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO
UPDATES.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT/NEAR KMYL AND KTWF-KJER. STORMS MAY CREATE
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN LOW
CLOUDS/SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS: 6000-7500 FEET MSL. SURFACE WINDS:
W-NW 10-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT, STRONGEST FROM MUO TO
KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: N TO NW 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. WINDS W TO NW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT
GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, THEN W TO NW 3-8
KT OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS
EASTWARD TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOWS UP
TO 35 MPH. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 6-7 KFT MSL. GENERAL
GUSTINESS UP TO 30 MPH IN OPEN TERRAIN, EXCEPT UP TO 40 MPH
BETWEEN MTN HOME AND TWIN FALLS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND WINDS
CALMING THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A 20-40% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER TERRAIN, AND A <10% CHANCE IN SE OREGON AND
THE SNAKE PLAIN.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
HIGH SATURDAY AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING INLAND IN
THE PACNW AND THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND REMAINS
HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT (60-80%), BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (DOWN TO 15- 30%). INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 6500-8000 FT
MSL SATURDAY DOWN TO 5000-7000 FT MSL SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
AROUND 7000 FT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT, LASTING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY FROM AROUND MOUNTAIN HOME SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....SP
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