772
FXUS65 KBOI 142048
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES YET, BUT THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE IN CENTRAL ID (EAST OF
MCCALL AND IDAHO CITY) RESULTS IN A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ONCE AGAIN
FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. PRECIP
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN S-CENTRAL
IDAHO, WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN EAST OR AND SOUTHWEST ID STARTING SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD,
LEADING TO A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS CAME OUT OF AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCATION OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THESE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES ALSO REDUCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL,
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SAT/SUN MAY BE NOTABLE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 0.75-1.00" CLOSER TO THE NV BORDER. SNOW LEVELS
WILL AVERAGE 6500-7500 FEET MSL DURING THIS TIME, AND THEREFORE
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THOSE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO PRECIP, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN SNAKE
PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF EAST OREGON.
A FLAT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY
AND PROMOTE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FROM SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.
STORMS MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS: 6000-7000 FEET
MSL. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT, STRONGEST
FROM MUO TO KTWF/KJER. WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: N TO NW 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE
BOISE FOOTHILLS MAY CLIP THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS W TO NW 15-20 KT WITH 25-30
KT GUSTS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, THEN W TO NW 3-8 KT OVERNIGHT.
BRIEF WIND SHIFTS FROM THE NE OR E MAY OCCUR DUE TO FOOTHILL
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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